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6 octobre 2006 5 06 /10 /octobre /2006 10:30

Voici une série d'articles interessants consacrés au Trend Trading issus de l'excellent magazine Stocks and Commodities.

Bonne lecture . www.jctrader.com  Le moneymanagement est la clé du succes.

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21 janvier 2006 6 21 /01 /janvier /2006 09:56

Customer Reviews "High Probability Trading" Marcel LINK

Terrific5
I liked this book a lot. It was clearly written. It covers a surprising array of trading aspects. The author doesn't come across as condescending. The author doesn't provide the reader with an unrealistic expectation of success or failure. The author has a lot of different experiences with trading that he uses to create a wonderful work. The book is organized well, and all the information contained in the book is relevant to traders and long-term investors alike.

The author has a lot of experience trading. He's traded in the pits of exchanges, traded other people's money, traded his own money, and has seen incredible blow-ups of his own and of his clients as a broker.

The book is organized well. The chapters are dense with information. Each chapter stays relevant and doesn't lose focus. The resulting effect is a high-quality work that hammers the nail right on the head.

The author doesn't provide the reader with unrealistic expectations. When you read this book, you'll read so many stories of people blowing their accounts up, that you'll come to understand success in this game is the exception, not the norm.

No book is perfect, so I will include a criticism of the book. It is redundant. It is redundant. It is redudant. But that might not be a bad thing if that's how you learn. But if you hate redundancy, avoid this book.

If you're looking for a book as a brief intro into financial statements, try "Rule #1 Investing" by Phil Town.

Appendix

The following works/books were mentioned by the author inside this book as recommended reading:
1) Reminiscences of a Stock Operator
2) The Inner Game of Tennis
3) Extraordinary Popular Delusions and the Madness of Crowds


I bought this book from a dealer off Amazon and it came in perfect condition. Try eBay if you're looking for best price.

Know your risk before you jump in5
Easy to read and understand but these concepts are a must known before anyone should even begin trading. Wish I had found it many $$$$ ago. This book will help you to understand why 90% of new traders loose money in the markets and what you have to do to be in the 10% that survive the first year. Especially if you think you are going to make a killing on Wall Street, you have to read this book first.

The book contains plenty of personal experiences and observations which help keep the material enjoyable as well as informative. Also, the book is aimed primaily at day traders, but all trading styles will benefit from its reading.

Some good information, but poorly presented3
I'm a relative newcomer to the world of investing books and have been choosing my reading material based mainly on reviews (like Amazon's) and recommendations. I'm disappointed with "High Probability Trading."

The author clearly has experience and knowledge about the subject but the writing is poor, even by investment book standards. Rather than introduce a concept, outline it logically, and present takeaways and recommendations, the book lapses into circuitous, hit-and-miss ramblings vaguely around a concept and never seems to make a clear, actionable point. I felt like I was repeatedly battered by urgent insistence that I make high probability trades (!!) without receiving much help identifying and setting up those same critical trades.

If I were stranded on a desert island with only one trading book (and a live internet connection, trading platform, and quoting package, of course) I'd choose John Carter's "Mastering the Trade."

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21 janvier 2006 6 21 /01 /janvier /2006 09:44

From the Back Cover  Marcel Link : "High Probability Trading"

"The Goal Is to Teach All Traders to Think with the Mindset of a Successful Trader..."

While successful trading requires tremendous skill and knowledge, it begins and ends with mindset. What do exceptional traders think when they purchase a quality stock and the price immediately plummets? How do they keep one bad trade from destroying their confidence--and bankroll? What do they know that the rest of us don't?

"Some trades are not worth the risk and should never be done."

High Probability Trading shows you how to trade only when the odds are in your favor. From descriptions of the software and equipment an exceptional trader needs to high probability signals that either a top or bottom has been reached, it is today's most complete guidebook to thinking like an exceptional trader--every day, on every trade.

"It's not how good you are at one individual thing, but it's the culmination of every aspect of trading that makes one successful."

Before he became a successful trader, Marcel Link spent years wading from one system to the next, using trial and error to figure out what worked, what didn't, and why. In High Probability Trading, Link reveals the steps he took to become a consistent, patient, and winning trader--by learning what to watch for, what to watch out for, and what to do to make each trade a high probability trade.

"Why do a select few traders repeatedly make money while the masses lose? What do bad traders do that good traders avoid, and what do winning traders do that is different? Throughout this book I will detail how successful traders behave differently and consistently make money by making high probability trades and avoiding common pitfalls..."--From the preface

Within 6 months of beginning their careers full of promise and hope, most traders are literally out of money and out of trading. High Probability Trading reduces the likelihood that you will have to pay this "traders' tuition," by detailing a market-proven program for weathering those first few months and becoming a profitable trader from the beginning.

Combining a uniquely blunt look at the realities of trading with examples, charts, and case studies detailing actual hits and misses of both short- and long-term traders, this straightforward guidebook discusses:

  • The 10 consistent attributes of a successful trader, and how to make them work for you
  • Strategies for controlling emotions in the heat of trading battle
  • Technical analysis methods for identifying trends, breakouts, reversals, and more
  • Market-tested signals for consistently improving the timing of entry and exit points
  • How to "trade the news"--and understand when the market has already discounted it
  • Learning how to get out of a bad trade before it can hurt you

The best traders enter the markets only when the odds are in their favor. High Probability Trading shows you how to know the difference between low and high probability situations, and only trade the latter. It goes far beyond simply pointing out the weaknesses and blind spots that hinder most traders to explaining how those defects can be understood, overcome, and turned to each trader's advantage.

While it is a cliché, it is also true that there are no bad traders, only bad trades. Let High Probability Trading show you how to weed the bad trades from your trading day by helping you see them before they occur. Packed with charts, trading tips, and questions traders should be asking themselves, plus real examples of traders in every market situation, this powerful book will first give you the knowledge and tools you need to tame the markets and then show you how to meld them seamlessly into a customized trading program--one that will help you join the ranks of elite traders and increase your probability of success on every trade.

About the Author

Marcel Link has been trading professionally since 1991. He is the founder of linkfutures.com and is a TradeStation consultant. Linkfutures.com serves the trading community with daily commentary on the markets, along with insights into technical analysis, training, marketing, and other information that can be vital to traders. Link can be reached for questions or comments at marcel@linkfutures.com.

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19 janvier 2006 4 19 /01 /janvier /2006 18:07

Friday, November 17, 2006

How You Can Lose Money Buying In An Uptrend by Brett

 

 
It's not enough to get market direction right, if your timing is all wrong.

Many markets (like the current stock indices) can form an uptrend by having occasional strong up days punctuated with periods of consolidation. If you buy after the strong days, you can get chopped up in the consolidation. If you sell the consolidation, you get run over by the bullish days. Markets can exhibit non-trending, reversing qualities on a short time frame and yet form a trend (i.e., conform to a trend line) over a longer period.

Here's an eye-opening finding. Since 2004 (N = 718 trading days), we've had 385 days in which we have been profitable from open to close. Following such a positive day, the next two days in the S&P 500 Index (SPY) have averaged a loss of -.06% (185 up, 200 down). That is weaker than the average two-day gain of .03% (387 up, 331 down) for the entire sample.

Conversely, when we've been down from open to close (N = 333), the next two days in SPY have averaged a gain of .21% (196 up, 137 down)--considerably stronger than average.

In other words, if you just look for selling after an up day session and buying after a down day session, you would have had an edge--despite the fact that the market has been in an overall uptrend since 2004.

The trend is not necessarily your friend if you're buying highs in a rising market. For the day timeframe trader, there's been no trending effect from day to day. Indeed, there has been a tendency toward reversal. This has also occurred at intraday time frames. The average open to close change in the S&P 500 Index since 2004 has been essentially zero.

For daytraders and short swing traders, we've basically had no bull market in the last 2+ years. Whether we're in a bull or bear market in the big picture matters not at all if that trend doesn't filter down to the time frame you're trading. Failing to understand that has cost daytraders a lot of money.
 

 

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1 janvier 2006 7 01 /01 /janvier /2006 01:26

Websites and Blogs

Daily Speculations - This is the website of Victor Niederhoffer and Laurel Kenner.  It is an outgrowth of their Spec List--an email distribution list among quantitatively oriented speculators--and highlights many of the best Spec List postings.  Nuggets of market wisdom abound, but the best takeaway is a model for how to think scientifically about markets.

Vertical Solutions - Henry Carstens' site is a treasure-trove of insights for system developers and those interested in trading systems.  He outlines the performance of his own systems and offers articles on how to develop and evaluate systems.  

StockPickr - This very creative site developed by James Altucher enables you to track professional and would-be professional portfolio managers and see what they're buying.  It's an excellent way to obtain trade ideas and research whether the stocks you're interested in are hot or not.  Some excellent portfolios based on stock screens are featured regularly.

Seeking Alpha - Excellent compilation of articles and blog posts organized by various topics and market sectors.  You can have links in defined categories emailed to you as a way of staying on top of market news.  Very broad coverage from quite a few excellent contributors; probably my favorite way of staying on top of emerging trends.

InstantBull - A very complete and well-organized aggregator site that compiles bulletin board posts, blog posts, and market research.  If you have a stock you want to research, you can find links for fundamentals, analyst ratings, relevant blog posts, and bulletin board talk.  Great research tool.

Trade 2 Win - This is a trading forum that provides high quality articles for discussion.  It's an active community and, as a contributor to the site, I can vouch for the editorial integrity of John Forman, who heads up content.  The Traders' Knowledge Lab archives dozens of articles, and the Traderpedia is, to my knowledge, the first trading wiki on the Web. 

Trading Markets - Eddie Kwong does an excellent job keeping fresh, free content on this site, with articles from an array of well-known contributors.  I contribute to this site as well and like the way it has evolved.  A new feature includes over 20 trading blogs, with a range of technical and fundamental slants. 

Trading Education - This is a relatively new site, with solid editing from Darrell Jobman, former editor of Futures Magazine.  I've written one article so far with them and find their approach to be professional.  It appears that good writers will be on the site, including Robert Colby; publisher Lane Mendelsohn (son of the well-known software developer, Louis)

The Kirk Report - Charles Kirk does a fantastic job of digging up interesting articles and information from all over the Web and assembling them in one place.  His blog is a kind of Drudge Report for traders--a great combination of interesting and useful info.  Kirk also has a service for paying clients that offers insights into stock selection and market forecasts.

Trader Mike - Trader Mike offers a blog that features stock selection and market commentary.  His past entries are archived, and he offers a very useful directory of other blogs.  He's been at this since May, 2003 and has accumulated an impressive set of resources.

CXO Advisory Group - This blog is more sophisticated than the average offering.  It outlines research and trading strategies, offering original research and trading models, including an interesting "reversion to value" model and a model based on "real earnings yield".  I particularly like the inflation forecast feature.

Abnormal Returns - This is a wide ranging blog that scours the Web for worthwhile links to financial stories and offers analyses and perspectives.  The entries are categorized by subject, with topics ranging from academic finance and behavioral finance to various trading markets. 

The Big Picture - Barry Ritholtz offers linkfests and a variety of interesting and provocative views on markets and the economy.  His "Apprenticed Investor" series is designed to help traders think more professionally about markets.

Daily Options Report - Adam Warner offers an entertaining and incisive look at options trading and strategies, modeling how a knowledgeable player thinks about those markets and cutting through Wall St. BS.

Alpha Trends - Brian Shannon integrates video into his blog to create an effective tool for teaching about markets and reviewing current market patterns.  It's an excellent way to track technical trading patterns as they occur.

A Dash of Insight - This is truly an insightful blog, written by an experienced money manager.  Jeffrey Miller, Ph.D. isn't shy about asking tough questions about markets, traders, strategies, and the economy.  

ETF Trends - ETFs increasingly allow individual traders to construct their own global/macro trading strategies, literally opening the world of investment opportunities to the stock trader.  Tom Lydon's site does a great job of tracking the various ETFs and developments in the rapidly changing ETF world. 

Ticker Sense - Here's an excellent research-oriented blog from Laszlo Birinyi's organization.  Lots of good posts on historical tendencies in the markets, strength and weakness among sectors, and trader sentiment--especially the weekly poll of bloggers.

Random Roger - Roger Nusbaum offers incisive commentary on everything from ETFs to the economy, international markets, and portfolio management.  I find his reasoning clear and fresh, providing new angles for viewing the markets.

Carl Futia - Carl's blog tracks market patterns with several unique methodologies.  He is one of the few market commentators steeped in the work of the late George Lindsay and actively applies Lindsey's work (as well as his own) to current markets. 

Thoughts From the Frontline - John Mauldin's blogsite was first brought to my attention by Jim Dalton, whose book Mind Over Markets is a fantastic trading resource in itself.  Mauldin's commentaries combine economic, market, and psychological insight--an excellent example of how to think creatively about markets.

MSN Money - This portal has a wide range of useful news, personal finance, and investing information.  The most useful feature for me is the commentary section of the investing pages.  Jon Markman's SuperModels articles, featuring market commentary and stock selection using quantitative criteria, are a gold mine in themselves.  Buried on the site, but referenced in Markman's work, is the impressive StockScouter selection system.

Fallond Stock Picks - Declan Fallond makes use of the Trade Ideas screen and offers an insightful blog for those interested in stock picking.  He includes stock scans, breakout stock ideas, and much more.

The Essentials of Trading - John Forman offers a detailed and insightful blog, elaborating on his fine book The Essentials of Trading.  Many good ideas about mentoring here, in addition to market views and ideas about risk management.

Footnoted - Very interesting site featuring the work of Michelle Leder, who authored the book Financial Fine Print.  The site is a blog that tracks highly revealing footnotes in the financial statements of firms.  Very important research for stock pickers.

Stock Blogs - Here's a very complete listing of trading-related blogs, organized by category, including technical analysis, fundamental analysis, and blogs devoted to specific markets. 

Dr. John Rutledge Blog - This blogsite describes its topics as "Technology, Policy, Economics, Investing, and Business".  It provides a practical take on economics as it affects the investment world and, as such, offers yet another model for thinking about markets.

 

Services and Products

Trader Feed - TraderFeed is my new service designed to efficiently deliver historical market analyses of equities, ETFs, and stock indexes to traders prior to the opening bell.  The goal is to identify patterns in the market that have been associated with a distinct trading edge, with the emphasis on creative analyses using customized variables:  some new, some from the Trading Psychology Weblog.  TraderFeed is free, and it's easily added to newsreaders with no accompanying advertising, spam, or solicitations.

Share Trading Education - John Atkinson has done a great job assembling this educational site Down Under.  A newsletter featuring Jim Berg, Daryl Guppy, and others is available here, along with e-books that detail trading methods and risk management strategies.  The content is appropriate for investors as well as traders, and I like the international focus.

Chicago Mercantile Exchange Education Department - I can't say enough about the resources at the Merc and the fine staff that helps traders get the most from them.  A nicely stocked library, classrooms where seminars are led by industry leaders, and a state-of-the-art Globex Learning Center that allows traders to try their hand at simulated trading with different software are a few of the features.  

Market Delta - Trevor Harnett heads up this software firm, which markets a reasonably priced application that tracks volume traded at the bid vs. offer price in real time for stocks and futures.  The Market Delta site contains a wealth of trading-related information to help users take advantage of the program, including videos.

Trade Ideas - This is a high octane screening program that allows you to screen for stocks (and futures) meeting a variety of real time, intraday criteria (as well as longer-term patterns).  Many of the historical patterns from the TraderFeed site, for instance, can be programmed into Trade Ideas so that your search for edge is updated in real time.  The Odds Maker module enables you to actually see how well your strategies have performed under recent market conditions.

Decision Point - Carl Swenlin's site is the best single repository of charts and technical indicators I've found.  He does a phenomenal job of tracking ETF and sector performance, and he calculates indicators you can't get elsewhere, such as the number of stocks in each index making 52 week highs.  

Strategic Advantage and Trader's Advantage - If you've been impressed by Jon Markman's stock picking on the MSN site, you might have an interest in his these services.  Trader's Advantage focuses on shorter-term trades and more active portfolio management; Strategic Advantage tracks longer-term positions.  Jon tracks the progress of each positions, as well as his portfolios, and brings far more substance than hype to stock selection.

Barchart - The Barchart site has thorough data on stock and futures performance, charts, and an intriguing feature that tracks the performance of stocks vis a vis various technical trading systems.  This is my favorite site for futures data and tracking commodity trends.

Stock Tickr - This is a very interesting concept takes the idea of stock watchlists and brings it to a P2P level.  This means that everyone can see everyone else's watchlist and track its performance in real time.  It's a powerful means for generating trading ideas, but also provides a social indicator of what's hot and what's not.  

NeoTicker - Lawrence Chan has some very interesting research ideas that he's incorporated into the NeoTicker charting program, but the software also includes an excellent simulator (real time and historical), trade execution, and the ability to research trading systems.  The company blog provides a window on some of their thinking. 

Ninja Trader - Raymond Deux and his staff have assembled a marvelous trading platform that incorporates many of the performance features developing traders require, including simulation trading, metrics, and sophisticated strategies for order management.  The simulation version is free, providing traders with a great look at the product.

Stator - Stator offers an interesting program for portfolio management, helping traders track the performance of their strategies and achieve proper risk management.  The Stator site includes a knowledge base with worthwhile articles on a variety of topics, from trading psychology to portfolio design and trading statistics.  

Adaptrade - This is Michael Bryant's site and features his software for analyzing the performance of trading systems and managing risk.  Mike is a system developer himself, and his site features worthwhile articles on aspects of system performance.  He offers some of his systems for sale at the Breakout Futures site.

Teach Me Futures - I'm impressed with the initiative John Conolly has taken in putting together the Teach Me Futures site.  Featuring audio recordings of seminars sponsored by leading trading firms and exchanges, the site has attracted presentations from a variety of experts.  I have done a presentation with John and can attest to the professionalism of the site. 

 

Coaching and Mentoring

 

 

 

Woodie's CCI Club - This is a lively community of traders led by Ken Wood, who teaches a trading methodology based on the Commodity Channel Index (CCI).  The motto is "traders helping traders", and it is one of the few real-time resources where new traders can watch experienced traders follow the market and place trades.  The Club has grown into a family of Hotcomm trading rooms, each with a different focus.  Truly a unique resource.

Linda Raschke - She is not only a "Market Wizard", but one of the pioneers of online trading rooms.  She and Chris Terry provide several rooms for traders in the futures and stock markets, and their site includes a wealth of educational articles and charts.  An end-of-day service allows you to read transcripts of trading room sessions if you cannot log on during the trading day.

Trade the Markets - John Carter, author of the excellent and practical book "Mastering the Trade" offers live trading rooms, video newsletters, indicators for TradeStation and e-Signal, and online seminars.  My conversations with John uniformly suggest to me that he understands markets and the needs of developing traders.

The Head Coach - Doug Hirschhorn has worked with traders in both proprietary and hedge fund settings, so he's seen it all.  His background in sport psychology provides him with a unique slant on trading, performance, and development.  

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